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Whether or now not Dalit polarisation will reap advantages in Punjab has to be viewed

Synopsis

Of the 117 seats, 34 (one-third) seats are reserved for the scheduled castes. Amongst the reserved seats, eight of the 34 reserved seats occupy bigger than 40% Dalit voters: Banga (49.71%); Kartarpur (48.82%); Phillaur (46.85%); Adampur (46.16%); Chabbewal (45.36%); Sham Chaurasi (44.67%); Bhoa (42.48%) and Malout (40.62%).

Agencies

The Punjab electoral panorama of 2022 is below a brand recent challenger for the first time since 1951 as Dalit votes could presumably tilt in favour of a Dalit chief minister in a converse where every third voter is a Dalit. What makes Charanjit Singh Channi the highest challenger in the February 2022 elections is the predominance of Dalit votes in every constituency of Punjab. On hand info on the delimitation of constituencies (2001 census) reveals that out of 117 seats in Punjab, 98 constituencies occupy Dalit voters starting from 49% to 20%.

Of the 117 seats, 34 (one-third) seats are reserved for the scheduled castes. Amongst the reserved seats, eight of the 34 reserved seats occupy bigger than 40% Dalit voters: Banga (49.71%); Kartarpur (48.82%); Phillaur (46.85%); Adampur (46.16%); Chabbewal (45.36%); Sham Chaurasi (44.67%); Bhoa (42.48%) and Malout (40.62%).

Dalit votes


Channi is contesting from two seats


Chamkaur Sahib (34.54%) and Bhadaur (31.69%) — cashing on this predominance. Twelve seats occupy Dalit voters starting from 35% to 39%; nine extra seats occupy Dalit voters starting from 34% to 30%. Easiest five seats occupy Dalit voters between 25% and 30%. Reserved seats occupy unusually excessive Dalit voters in Punjab not like assorted states where they common from 15 to 20% voters. In the reserved seats in most cases, greater castes settle the winner because Dalit votes gain ruin up amongst the reserved contestants. Nonetheless with this excessive percentage of voters in these 34 reserved seats, even though 50% of the Dalit voters settle to leer a Dalit CM, it is in most cases a first step in direction of forming the government.

Dalit predominance as voters continues in a majority of the 83 general seats. Amongst the final seats, the competitors is at all times between non-Dalit candidates. A excessive Dalit voter presence in most cases constituencies will play basically the most wanted position in the winnability of a general candidate.

Of the 83 unreserved constituencies, 25 occupy a Dalit vote inappropriate starting from 43 to 30%, 21 occupy Dalit voter vary of 25%-29%, and 17 occupy Dalit voters starting from 20% to 24%. This draw that 64 out of 83 general seats occupy Dalit voter predominance starting from 43% to 20% votes.

Dalits could presumably occupy a relate in 98 out of 117 seats in Punjab (34 reserved seats and 57 general seats). Traditional seats with excessive Dalit voters could even be viewed Nakodar (43.89%) Nawan Shahr (40.66%) Lambi (40.50%) Majitha (37.44%); Garhshankar (38.62%); Muktsar (35.38%); Kotkapura (35.64%); Faridkot (35.25%); Bhagha Purana (35.18%). Even Amritsar East seat of Navjot Sidhu has 21.91% Dalit voters. In multipolar elections where a swing is main even by half a p.c, Dalit voters with a lowest presence of 10.46% also issues.

The sub-castes amongst Dalits give a clearer advise

Channi belongs to Ravidasi/Ramdassia/ Chamar/ Advert Dharmi team of equivalent castes, and constitute 42% of the SC inhabitants. They dominate the total 25 seats in Doaba. Hoshiarpur district has 75% Ravidasis amongst SCs; Bhagat Singh 84%; Jalandhar 54%; and Kapurthala 32%.

Aam Admi Gain together and Shiromani Akali Dal try to woo assorted Dalit castes: Balmiki/Majhabhi Sikhs who are 31% of the SC inhabitants. They’re concentrated in city areas and the Malwa self-discipline. Mazhabhi Sikhs constitute 67% of the Dalit inhabitants in Moga; 50% in Bhatinda; 65% in Faridkot; 60% in Fatehgarh; and 60 in Muktsar. Nonetheless Ravidasis and Mazhabhi team inhabitants is evenly populated in the the leisure of Punjab in Barnala, Ferozpur and Mansa.

With AAP (Bhagwant Mann) and Shiromani Akali Dal (Sukhbir Badal) having Jat Sikh CM candidates and do not occupy any prominent leaders from Mazhabhi Sikh/ Balmiki communities, their dependence upon Dalit voters from Balmiki and Mazhabhi Sikhs turns into dicey, if in case Dalits consolidate in the encourage of Channi.No longer like non secular polarisation in Uttar Pradesh, whether or now not the polarisation of Dalit voters in Punjab, can give them the demographic dividend has to be viewed.

The creator teaches political science in Delhi University

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed on this column are that of the creator. The details and opinions expressed here dwell now not replicate the views of www.economictimes.com.)

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